If Not Now, When NATO?
Most military experts would say a large red line has been sorely crossed by the introduction of North Korean troops into the war in Ukraine
As every day of this war, the news comes in thick and fast, constantly. There are over 100 battles going on in the Eastern front. Over a 100, 24 hours a day. The Russians do not stop at sun-down or at any time, and are constantly sending small teams forward to probe, attack, take. They use small teams because it is more difficult for drones to hit them than with large offensives. When they discover hard defence they call in artillery, or the reverse happens, the artillery lays an area to waste and small teams of Russian soldiers go in to try to clear it out. These small teams are only a handful of individuals, and they go in under drone cover. Drones are extensively used now for many tasks, including taking out troops, and they are everywhere. It was an astute move by the Ukrainian high command to set up a drone regiment, the first in the world, and NATO troops would do well to learn about drone warfare, and learn quickly, because of they are faced with this form of warfare against the Russians, things are not going to go well at all.
But that is absolutely no excuse for the constant ducking and diving by NATO, the US government, and a few other Western governments, too. When will the West, long having preached about democratic values and intervened to protect these values in Europe, the Middle East and Africa finally creep out from their self-imposed bunkers?
Currently Russian operatives are poisoning food within Ukraine. In Kherson small drones are chasing civilians and killing them, on the streets and in their homes, and perennially hospitals continue to be targeted by glide bombs and missiles. Every day. Yet because of fear of escalation the United States and Germany do not want to hear any talk about Ukraine joining NATO, and this is with president Zelenskiy highlighting how a Ukraine in NATO could take over many duties currently carried out by the U.S. military, freeing them for other roles — ie Taiwan.
But until then, we have North Korean troops in Europe, fighting a war, and it barely gets a mention. 10,000 troops, officially, but obviously more, with a growing number. 10,000+ troops out of a possible 1M. And that does not include reserves. But surely Kim Yong Un would not commit half of his army to this war! Why not? I would be interested to know which measure the North Korean government has taken in the last, say, 50 years that has been logical in any way or form. The Kim dynasty’s coffers will be overflowing soon, which will with a bit of luck mean a heart attack for Blubberman Kim after over-indulgence, with his sister then daughter taking over.
If Germany and the U.S. stand out for their idiocy, Orban outdoes himself. Corrupt to the core, in ideas as well as riches, he has gone out of his way to derail all efforts by Ukraine to defend themselves.
But even countries like Norway, Switzerland and Austria are conspicuous by their lack of moral fibre, as well as support. All three, coincidentally have the best GDP in Europe, and their appalling lack of support to a country undergoing genocide is one thing: it is their pretense, every now and then, to be supportive that is galling. Take Switzerland, who with much fanfare has decided to donate three demining machines. Demining machines? What is that? They mean vehicles, Swiss-made, of course, a bit like a tractor, painted army green with pads. Three, not three hundred, or thirty. As for Austria, well, Austria too likes to hide behind the ‘neutrality’ word, and horror upon horror, would never send weapons! I mean my goodness, war is evil after all! Not a quote of an Austrian gentleman named Hitler, by the way. And then there is Norway, whose government position officially is that if they donate more to Ukraine, other countries will donate less.
So what does this mean in the long term?
Russia at the moment is pursuing what it sees as a Eurasian policy. This policy was actually defined by Nazabaev, kleptocratic leader of Kazakhstan in 1994, and indeed, corruption seems to be a mainstream in this movement, formally launched by Russia in 2015. North Korea joining would fit perfectly (China might not be overjoyed), as would Hungary, with Orban’s blatant Eurasianism, with his frequent visits to Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Russia, Turkey and China). Unfortunately it seems to have escaped Orban that the term Euroasian is merely a replacement for Russian World, which is itself a clearly defined philosophy and goal, and is defined by the idea that Russia is simply too unique to be a part of any other kind of world. This thought is itself not unique when applied elsewhere, and was behind Brexit and MAGA, as well as countless nazi organisations.
North Korea brings highly disciplined troops to the Ukraine war — disciplined in parades at least, and it seems that the North Korean brigade will serve under a Buryat division. Buryats come from Tuva, an area bordering Mongolia, but sharing no other affiliation with Koreans other than being nearer than Moscow. One reason for this is to disguise who are Buryats or Korean and who is not, both for the outside world and in Russia. But North Korea has 22 engineering brigades, a skill Russians completely lack, and will continue to do so. Formally, 3 or 4 of those brigades are now in Ukraine. This is troubling when one considers the majority rivers that need crossing when moving forward, for the main Ukrainian rivers like the Dnieper and have been a natural defence barrier.
I started this article with a photo of a medal awarded to callsign Goriats (Mountain Man), because men, women and children are fighting and dying defending Ukraine, every day, and have been doing so since 2014, and then in greater numbers from 2022 onwards. They are real people, honest, hospitable, kind, courteous, well-educated and hard-working, who deserve much, much better from this cowardly, unconcerned world, represented by expensive governments and organisations who stand idle.
So what should NATO do?
First, coordinate aid, so it does not arrive ad-hoc, an incredible strain on Ukraine. NATO also needs to provide trainers to train Ukrainian medics in Western Ukraine, and security personnel to provide cover. This includes planes. After this, NATO needs to declare that if Russia continues to attack hospitals, civilians and grain silos, weapons will be supplied to take out launch sites in Russia, in order to protect these illegitimate targets, bearing in mind that all targets are not legitimate. None of those measures are remotely controversial.
Ain, I, like many people have taken my eye off the ball with regard to Ukraine due to the Palestinian crisis. Arguably, Putin's boldness has emboldened Israel, although the more I have come to understand about that conflict, the more it is clear that what is nakedly revealed in the present, has always been the plan and the ethos. I can't help wondering whether 75 years of carefully constructed narrative towards the outside world and the Jewish diaspora has not been blown out of the water by Netenyahu's need to stay in power and giving control to those who go all out for Nakbar v. 2. Will world opinion or rather world governments be driven to change their support. Your assessment of the tepid support for Ukraine does not encourage for the outcome in either area. You told me a lot which I had not heard eg. about N. Korea. I agree about the need for NATO to get to grips with drone warfare (also demonstrated in Gaza and in the October 7th attack by Hamas where drones dropped explosives on the automatic gun towers). When there was debate about the merits of the UK ordering a new aircraft carrier, I thought then that we should be anticipating and spending for quite different kinds of war. At the time, I was thinking more of countering small terrorist/insurgent actions since Ukraine and Gaza had not happened then, but if I can see that, and with the "unthinkable" "conventional" wars in both places (one in Europe) WTF are our UK and other governments thinking? Defence policies need rethinking from macro to micro starting with putting money and serious intent behind the mouthed platitudes about stopping Putin's attack on rule based order and applying the same thinking to an out of control Israeli government...